The Aaronson Group
Luxury Coastal Real Estate - OC
Waiting for a Housing Crash? What 100+ Experts Forecast Through 2030
Ask ten buyers about home prices right now and you will hear two very different fears. Some are worried a crash is coming and they will overpay. Others are quietly hoping for one, waiting for prices to drop before they make a move. A recent Clever survey found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for a crash simply because it would make ownership feel more attainable.
Both camps are reacting to the same question: is a correction actually on the way? The most reliable answer comes from the people who study this for a living, and their latest verdict is clear.
The Forecast
What the Experts Are Projecting
Each quarter, Fannie Mae polls a panel of more than 100 economists, housing analysts, and investment strategists for its Home Price Expectations Survey. The newest results do not call for a crash. Not from the optimists, and not from the pessimists.
The panel expects national home prices to rise every year through at least 2030, with cumulative growth averaging 14.7% over the next five years. When the panel is split into its most bullish and most bearish members, the cautious group still projects roughly 6.6% appreciation by the end of 2030.
| Fannie Mae Panel Outlook | Projection |
|---|---|
| Average 5-year cumulative growth (through 2030) | +14.7% |
| Pessimist group, cumulative through 2030 | +6.6% |
| 2026 growth, current forecast | +2.5% |
| 2026 growth, forecast one year ago | +2.1% |
| Years with a projected price decline | None |
Source: Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. National figures.
The Trend
A Steadier Climb, Not a Reversal
Because the survey runs four times a year, it shows how expert sentiment shifts over time. A year ago, the panel expected 2.1% growth for 2026. Today that number sits at 2.5%, so the near-term outlook has actually improved.
Looking further out, expectations for 2027 through 2029 have softened slightly compared with last year’s projections. That reflects today’s rate environment and broader economic conditions. The important detail is direction: every year in the forecast still shows appreciation. The pace has moderated; the trajectory has not changed.
For buyers and sellers, a measured climb is a healthy sign. After several years of sharp swings, the market is settling into a more sustainable rhythm.
Coastal Orange County
Why National Numbers Are Only the Starting Point
National forecasts blend thousands of markets together. Coastal Orange County plays by its own rules. In Monarch Beach, Dana Point, Laguna Beach, Newport Coast, and Corona del Mar, the supply of homes is fixed by the coastline, protected open space, and decades of established development. New ocean-view inventory is rare, and well-qualified buyers compete for it in every cycle.
That is why local insight matters as much as the headline forecast. Some neighborhoods may run warmer than the national average; others may move at a more measured pace. Understanding the difference, street by street and community by community, is where strategy is built.
Equity in Real Dollars
What Waiting Could Cost at Coastal Price Points
Percentages become more meaningful when applied to coastal OC values. The illustration below applies the panel’s national five-year projections to representative price points. It is not a local forecast, but it shows the scale of equity at stake for buyers sitting on the sidelines.
| Purchase Price | Average Outlook (+14.7%) | Pessimist Outlook (+6.6%) |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500,000 | +$220,500 | +$99,000 |
| $3,000,000 | +$441,000 | +$198,000 |
| $5,000,000 | +$735,000 | +$330,000 |
Illustrative only. National forecast percentages applied to sample price points; actual local appreciation will vary.
Common Questions
Home Price Forecast FAQ
Are experts predicting a housing crash in 2026 or 2027?
No. Fannie Mae’s panel of more than 100 housing experts projects national home prices to rise every year through at least 2030, and even its most pessimistic members expect appreciation.
How much are home prices expected to rise by 2030?
The panel’s average forecast calls for roughly 14.7% cumulative national growth over the next five years. The pessimist group projects about 6.6%.
Do national forecasts apply to coastal Orange County?
They provide direction, but coastal OC communities such as Monarch Beach, Laguna Beach, Dana Point, and Newport Coast are shaped by limited supply and local demand. Neighborhood-level data gives a more accurate picture.
Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?
Expert forecasts do not support waiting for a decline. The right timing depends on your goals, financing, and the specific community you are targeting, which is best evaluated with a local advisor.
Bottom Line
The Verdict Is In
Whether you have been bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the experts land in the same place: prices are expected to keep rising, just at a steadier pace. The more useful question is what that means for your neighborhood and your next move.
Kevin Aaronson brings nearly 28 years of coastal Orange County experience, more than $750M in career sales, and over 1,000 homes closed to that conversation. The Aaronson Group can walk you through current pricing, inventory, and timing in the specific community you are considering.
The Aaronson Group
Get a Private Market Outlook for Your Neighborhood
Call or email Kevin Aaronson
949-388-5194 | info@previewochomes.com
Kevin Aaronson | DRE #01259966 | Keller Williams Luxury
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